Yep, this is my understanding too and of course, also as Tojo mentions, not all the newer smurfs have the blue dots. Off hand I am pretty sure 2005, 2006 and 2007 smurfs don't have any dot.Then came the blue paint dot which signifies that it was made using the "new" PVC formula, used since October 2000, when the "old" formulation was banned from use in the European Union.
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